Consumption Response to Temporary Price Shock: Evidence from Singapore's Annual Sale Event

Exploiting debit card and credit card transactions of a large, representative sample of consumers from a leading bank in Singapore, we examine the consumption response to an anticipated, transitory price shock generated by the nation-wide annual sale event. Consumers significantly increase their spending during the sale event. More importantly, we find inter-temporal substitution where consumers spend less immediately before the event, and cross-categorical substitution behavior where consumers decrease spending in items unaffected by the sale event. However, consumers exhibit little substitution behavior when they use credit cards or when they are liquidity constrained, highlighting the importance of heterogeneity in assessing the aggregate impact of such stimulus programs.

Agarwal, Sumit and Koo, Kang Mo and Qian, Wenlan, Consumption Response to Temporary Price Shock: Evidence from Singapore's Annual Sale Event (February 21, 2022). Journal of Financial Intermediation, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3035787 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3035787