Impact of Temperature on Morbidity: New Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between temperature and hospitalization in China. Using inpatient visit claims of two major public insurance schemes covering 47 cities in 28 provinces for three years, we see a 7.3% increase in hospital admissions on days on which the average temperature is above 27°C, and a 2% cumulative increase of the mean 31-day visit rate of the benchmark-temperature day in hospitalization in the subsequent weeks. Such an effect is much larger than evidence from developed economies. Using detailed information on medical bills, we calculate that an additional hot day nationwide is associated with approximately 2 billion yuan (roughly equivalent to 0.3 billion US dollars) increase in medical expenses that are related to inpatient services, 1.9 billion yuan (roughly equivalent to 0.29 billion US dollars) of which is borne by the public insurance system, and 0.2 billion yuan (roughly equivalent to 0.01 billion US dollars) of which is borne by the insured.

Agarwal, Sumit and Qin, Yu and Shi, Luwen and Wei, Guoxu and Zhu, Hongjia, Impact of Temperature on Morbidity: New Evidence from China (March 19, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3807776 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3807776